Global Copper Market Analysis in 2025 [[SMM Copper Conference]]

On April 23, at the CCIE-2025SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo — Main Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., co-sponsored by Jiangxi Copper Corporation and Yingtan Land Port Holding Co., Ltd., and specially co-organized by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Xinhuang Group and Zhongtiaoshan Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., Ben Knoefler, Chairman of the Board of KCI Group, analyzed the global copper market in 2025. The growing global demand conflicts with limited supply; copper is now a strategic asset for electrification and digital growth; this article explores demand drivers, supply risks, and strategies. ► Demand Drivers — A Copper-Intensive Future • Renewable Energy: 3.6 mt of copper per megawatt (wind energy), copper in solar inverters; • EVs: 83 kg of copper per EV, compared to 20 kg for traditional vehicles; • Infrastructure: Urbanization, smart cities, and green buildings; • Growth Prospects: 22% CAGR for EVs, 8.4% CAGR for renewable energy. ► Supply Constraints — Widening Supply Gap • Aging Mines and Declining Ore Grades: Most large existing mines are experiencing declining copper production per mt of ore. • Insufficient New Project Pipeline: Mine development takes over 10 years, and there is underinvestment in new supply. • Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks: Political instability, environmental regulations, and permit delays hinder production. • Underinvestment: Weak capital investment for decades has slowed exploration and project development. • Smelters face significant challenges in maintaining production. ► Price Outlook — Bullish on Copper Prices • Short-term: Citigroup expects prices to reach $10,000 to $12,000 per mt. • Medium-term: In 2025, copper prices may fluctuate between $8,800 and $9,500 per mt. • Long-term: With the energy transition, prices are expected to exceed $15,000 per mt. • (Price Trends) Driven by structural demand, tight supply, and tariff factors. ► Strategic Responses — Capturing Value in a Tight Supply Market • Target high-grade small and medium-sized deposits. • Focus on regions with easier approvals and strategic demand. • Align exploration efforts with industrial off-taker needs. • Act with a venture capitalist mindset — be flexible and act quickly. ► Unlocking the Potential of Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM) — An Underutilized Lever in Copper Mining Challenges: • High Initial Investment Costs: Unlike gold or tin, copper mining requires significant infrastructure. • Regulatory Hurdles: ASM faces difficulties in complying with environmental and labor regulations. • Market Access Issues: Informal supply chains make scaling up production difficult. • ASM lacks the facilities or financial support to improve raw material quality and benefit from "economies of scale." Opportunities: • ASM accounts for a relatively small share of global copper supply but plays a significant role in global gold (20%), tin (25%), and tantalum (26%) supply. • To date, there are no statistics or registries on ASM copper production, even in Peru, a major global copper producer. • Considering data on other minerals and metals, ASM has significant potential. • ASM can quickly fill supply gaps due to accessible resources and market availability. ► Conclusion — Copper's Strategic Positioning Copper is an attractive investment (with a gap between demand and supply). In a copper bull market, while only a few companies can seize opportunities, most are not taking action to secure future business/supply. Recommendations: • Invest in small-scale mining operations to bring copper to market faster. • Secure direct supply through long-term agreements/micro-level investments with mines. • Focus on high-grade deposits accessible to individuals and ASM, engage in strategic M&A, and promote sustainable mining. Final Outlook — Seizing the Strategic Future of the Copper Industry • Demand growth outpaces supply growth — structural shortages will persist until 2035+; • Long-term prices remain bullish but with cyclical fluctuations; • Strategic, flexible investment models are most likely to benefit; • In an increasingly copper-driven economic environment, first movers will gain a competitive advantage. 》Click to view the special report on the CCIE-2025SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo.